Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x989d…ea85 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$46 (-0%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$16
politics 28% −$8
economics 7% −$2
sports 3% −$23
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -3.9% -13.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
all 108 -3.9% -13.1% 10% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 6% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -29.0% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$263
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage90d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $146 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $303 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $103 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $346 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 22 $55 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 21 $50 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $246 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $257 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $256 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 03 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $238 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $249 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $262 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $256 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $471 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $467 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $712 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $251 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $512 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $489 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $478 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $266 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $252 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $490 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $262 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 11 $475 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? BUY No 100¢ $74 14h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 16h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $147 2d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 23d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $53 23d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 24d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 25d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $55 28d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 29d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 29d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $6 29d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 30d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 30d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 30d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 31d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.61 · official $262.61 (match) · 293 history records