Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x989d…5733 crypto 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+9%) realized +$94 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%12W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$110
14 days+$85
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$62
sports 33% +$50
other 22% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.0% +2.2% 50% 50% +67.2%
≤30d 28 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 36% -6.3%
≤90d 30 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 40% -2.2%
all 30 +1.4% -8.3% 40% 40% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 40% -2.2%
10% -17.0% 40% -11.5%
15% -25.0% 33% -20.1%
20% -32.4% 33% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses12 / 18
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage37d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$16 -52%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$7 -73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $59 +$49 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $38 +$24 +62%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $32 +$66 +206%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 21 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 21 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 21 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 21 $46 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 21 $8 +$46 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 21 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 21 $36 +$31 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 21 $21 +$33 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 21 $26 +$28 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 21 $25 −$1 -3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $34 −$2 -5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $43 −$42 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $46 +$32 +71%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $61 +$21 +34%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $88 +$24 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $61 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 22¢ $14 2h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) SELL Czechia $3 2h
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) BUY Czechia 21¢ $10 3h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 44¢ $31 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $59 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 61¢ $38 16h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $32 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 25h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $1 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 28¢ $27 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.00 · official $50.00 (match) · 83 history records