Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x989e…aa30 crypto 369 markets active 12h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-6%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%154W / 215L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$36
14 days−$77
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 29% −$50
crypto 23% −$43
other 21% −$63
politics 10% −$11
finance 8% −$20
sports 4% +$3
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.5% -16.3% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 72 -12.1% -20.5% 10% 1% -15.3%
≤90d 369 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 34% -16.3%
all 369 -8.9% -17.6% 42% 34% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 34% -16.3%
10% -25.5% 28% -24.3%
15% -32.7% 21% -31.6%
20% -39.3% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses154 / 215
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)369 / 369
History coverage60d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 369 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? Jun 19 $5 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? Jun 19 $17 −$14 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 19 $27 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 19 $52 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 17 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $32 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $14 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $37 −$2 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 −$5 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$4 -31%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $0 $0 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $0 $0 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -24%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -36%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $50 +$1 +3%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 +$2 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -8%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 9? Jun 09 $28 −$11 -39%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $56 −$3 -5%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $34 −$14 -43%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 09 $75 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 61¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? SELL No 38¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 38¢ $5 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? SELL No 6¢ $3 19h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 20? BUY No 34¢ $17 19h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? SELL No 50¢ $24 23h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? BUY No 54¢ $27 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $15 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL No 65¢ $32 24h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju BUY No 71¢ $36 24h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 59¢ $29 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 60¢ $30 28h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 45¢ $1 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 46¢ $1 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 47¢ $9 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 46¢ $9 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? SELL No 46¢ $9 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 46¢ $9 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 71¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $36 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 61¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 61¢ $11 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1154 history records