Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
98 0x98a3…9024 sports 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$466 (+28%) realized +$499 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%36W / 37L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$440
7 days+$440
14 days+$440
30 days+$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$387
other 10% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +36.2% +23.2% 58% 58% +24.7%
≤30d 73 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 49% +13.5%
≤90d 73 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 49% +13.5%
all 73 +13.1% +2.3% 49% 49% +13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 49% +13.5%
10% -7.5% 49% +2.6%
15% -16.4% 49% -7.3%
20% -24.6% 49% -16.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$499
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses36 / 37
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)73 / 76
History coverage25d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 33¢ $45 $29 −$16 (-35%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 30¢ $39 $23 −$16 (-40%)
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 26¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $29 +$28 +95%
Vladimír Darida: 1+ assists Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 +$94 +103%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$37 +200%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $99 +$98 +99%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $18 +$36 +194%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$42 +137%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $132 −$130 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $20 +$46 +223%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $75 +$58 +77%
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals Jun 17 $14 +$40 +277%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$30 +99%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$41 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $125 +$81 +65%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ assists Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $31 +$29 +91%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $39 +$29 +74%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $34 +$37 +112%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$29 +95%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $19 +$34 +176%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Universitatea Craiova CS win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $17 +$10 +58%
Sandefjord Fotball vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5 May 25 $7 +$8 +115%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: Both Teams to Score May 25 $8 +$9 +109%
Tromsø IL vs. Aalesunds FK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $22 −$22 -99%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 2.5 May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: Both Teams to Score May 25 $12 −$12 -99%
IK Start vs. Vålerenga Fotball: O/U 3.5 May 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $11 +$10 +91%
Torino FC vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $10 +$12 +116%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Clube do Remo vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 3.5 May 24 $8 +$14 +176%
SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 1.5 May 24 $12 +$8 +69%
AC Milan vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 May 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $40 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $46 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $57 1h
Vladimír Darida: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $12 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $29 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $30 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $39 10h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $19 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $27 22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $186 23h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 98¢ $55 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $196 23h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $18 23h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $15 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $99 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $91 24h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $16 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $54 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $72 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $18 26h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $132 30h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $22 35h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $31 35h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $66 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $67 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $40 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $66 38h
Romano Schmid: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $54 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.66 · official $70.66 (match) · 117 history records