Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98a3…0795
politics · 36 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$11 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage270d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +5%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $26 +$16 +64%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in October? Oct 13 $27 $0 -1%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 22 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 16 $5 $0 -2%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 31% $0
other 24% +$12
world 22% −$1
crypto 12% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $37 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $38 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $21 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 15h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $20 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $5 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $15 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 5d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $26 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL No 21¢ $18 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $2 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $8 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $1 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $5 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY No 21¢ $2 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $26 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $26 200d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 205d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 242d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 98¢ $27 243d
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 98¢ $27 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 6 +0.5% -9.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 34 +0.1% -9.4% 21% 6% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -7.8%
10% -18.1% 6% -16.6%
15% -26.0% 6% -24.7%
20% -33.3% 6% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.09 · official $40.09 (match) · 119 history records