Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98a4…3c7a
other · 229 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
−$22 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$81
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses99 / 117
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)216 / 229
History coverage220d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 13 History 216 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Russia win on 2025-11-15? Yes 63¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bruins vs. Blues Blues 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Western Kentucky vs. Jacksonville State Western Kentucky 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
North Texas vs. Tulane North Texas 56¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor season 49? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Lakers Lakers 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Spread: Virginia (-3.5) Virginia 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Aston Villa (-1.5) Aston Villa 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26? No 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +169%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bills vs. Patriots Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Dec 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 229.5 Dec 11 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Dec 10 $3 −$1 -33%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Dec 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Dec 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bruins vs. Blues Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Magic: O/U 233.5 Dec 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $2 +$3 +132%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $2 +$2 +117%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-12-10? Dec 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Dolphins vs. Jets: O/U 41.5 Dec 08 $1 +$1 +96%
Titans vs. Browns: O/U 34.5 Dec 08 $2 +$3 +104%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-12-06? Dec 07 $1 +$1 +72%
North Texas vs. Tulane Dec 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-6.5) Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-06? Dec 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-05? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Virginia (-3.5) Dec 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Lions (-3.5) Dec 05 $2 +$2 +110%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $5 +$3 +66%
Celtics vs. Wizards: O/U 228.5 Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leavitt say "ICE" during the next White House press briefing? Dec 04 $2 $0 -6%
Will Savannah Louie win Survivor season 49? Dec 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Magic: O/U 235.5 Dec 04 $2 +$2 +98%
Heat vs. Mavericks: O/U 240.5 Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03? Dec 03 $3 +$2 +82%
Clippers vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5 Dec 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Devils Dec 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Canucks vs. Avalanche Dec 03 $3 +$1 +31%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 03 $2 +$1 +53%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $1 $0 +3%
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor season 49? Dec 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03? Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 02 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Steven Ramm be voted off of Survivor season 49 on December 3? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Wizards vs. 76ers: O/U 236.5 Dec 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Senators vs. Canadiens Dec 02 $4 −$2 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 49% +$7
sports 36% −$23
politics 12% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $3 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 4d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Bills vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 47¢ $1 182d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 182d
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) BUY Lakers 65¢ $4 185d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 186d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 60% +67.9%
≤30d 5 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 60% +67.9%
≤90d 5 +42.7% +29.1% 60% 60% +67.9%
all 216 -4.5% -13.6% 46% 42% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 42% -11.5%
10% -21.9% 39% -20.0%
15% -29.4% 34% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 30% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.61 · official $80.61 (match) · 501 history records