Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98a7…b766 sports 648 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$2,671 (-2%) realized −$2,268 · open −$403
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate57%370W / 275L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day69.8pace
Fees−$1,582est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$823now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days−$61
14 days−$464
30 days−$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$509
other 4% −$417
crypto 1% +$3
world 0% −$200
politics 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 35% -9.7%
≤30d 360 +19.6% +8.2% 60% 37% -10.3%
≤90d 645 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 39% -10.9%
all 645 +14.8% +3.9% 57% 39% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 39% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -6.1% 32% -19.4%
15% -15.2% 24% -27.2%
20% -23.5% 20% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$113 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$823
Realized−$2,268
Unrealized−$403
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses370 / 275
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,582
Open positions3
Markets (closed)645 / 648
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$182
Trades / day69.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 645 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner InterActive Philippines 81¢ 66¢ $462 $375 −$87 (-19%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 64¢ 40¢ $573 $364 −$208 (-36%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 No 81¢ 36¢ $191 $84 −$107 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $329 +$19 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 20 $94 +$6 +6%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) Jun 20 $87 +$13 +14%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $525 +$302 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $317 +$23 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $179 +$21 +12%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $1,937 +$892 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy (BO3) - ESEA European Finals Playo Jun 19 $266 +$15 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 −$90 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $487 +$33 +7%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $43 +$20 +46%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 19 $157 +$14 +9%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $773 +$65 +8%
Counter-Strike: Arch vs WBT Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $527 +$45 +8%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $219 −$7 -3%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $509 +$267 +52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $78 +$32 +41%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $503 +$628 +125%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $187 +$131 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $171 +$185 +109%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $171 −$153 -90%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $427 +$33 +8%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $567 −$255 -45%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $259 −$259 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $595 −$13 -2%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $608 −$608 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $366 −$50 -14%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $922 −$288 -31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $599 +$42 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $230 +$70 +31%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $675 +$227 +34%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $79 +$21 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $247 −$247 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $215 +$626 +291%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $335 +$23 +7%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $680 −$317 -47%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $223 −$216 -97%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $148 +$11 +8%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $276 +$145 +53%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $141 +$7 +5%
Set Handicap: Zandschulp (-1.5) vs Paul (+1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $304 +$196 +64%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $340 −$314 -92%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $717 −$717 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $582 −$582 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 83¢ $83 12m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 63¢ $191 12m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 77¢ $17 15m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 76¢ $96 15m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 85¢ $171 16m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 64¢ $388 17m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 79¢ $40 17m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 77¢ $8 18m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 77¢ $8 18m
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 77¢ $42 18m
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 95¢ $329 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 78¢ $195 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 59¢ $146 12h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $34 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 65¢ $36 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 64¢ $78 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $8 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 68¢ $142 14h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P SELL ReThink 100¢ $300 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $111 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $125 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $52 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $91 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 64¢ $40 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $91 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $520 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $116 14h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 87¢ $87 14h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 99¢ $99 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.35 · official $823.35 (match) · 3500 history records