Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98aa…8b8f other 160 markets active 16h ago coverage 137d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,180 (+6%) realized +$4,485 · open −$305
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%78W / 216L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$415per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit3%portable
Net worth$1,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$2,854
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -86.9% -88.2% 5% 5% -45.6%
≤30d 211 -57.3% -61.3% 16% 14% -34.9%
≤90d 265 -44.7% -50.0% 22% 19% -25.1%
all 294 -39.6% -45.4% 27% 22% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 22% -18.8%
10% -50.6% 14% -26.6%
15% -55.4% 12% -33.7%
20% -59.7% 9% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -98% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$88 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1,016
Realized+$4,485
Unrealized−$305
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses78 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions39
Markets (closed)294 / 160
History coverage137d
Avg bet$415
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit3%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 36¢ $96 $292 +$196 (+204%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 20¢ $38 $205 +$167 (+433%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 18¢ $38 $185 +$147 (+381%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $38 $95 +$57 (+147%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $65 $92 +$26 (+40%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $38 $46 +$8 (+21%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $24 −$15 (-39%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $16 −$23 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $14 −$25 (-65%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $38 $6 −$32 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $4 −$34 (-88%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-69%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $4 −$35 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$36 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $14 $1 −$13 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $1 −$16 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$38 -196%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$34 -175%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 17 $19 −$31 -160%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$41 -106%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $167 15h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $125 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $244 16h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $513 34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $518 37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $181 37h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $186 37h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $101 37h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $99 39h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $44 42h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $64 47h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $91 47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $146 47h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 47h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $28 47h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $101 47h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $183 47h
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,016.10 · official $1,016.10 (match) · 1418 history records