Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x98ab…86b5 crypto 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$44 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%91W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$8
sports 31% −$31
weather 10% −$77
other 10% +$119
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 25% -22.7%
≤30d 14 -29.5% -36.2% 29% 21% -29.6%
≤90d 183 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 44% -9.0%
all 183 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 44% -9.0%
10% -24.8% 39% -17.7%
15% -32.1% 33% -25.7%
20% -38.7% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$44
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses91 / 92
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)183 / 187
History coverage63d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 67¢ 70¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
O/U 0.5 Rounds Under 19¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +123%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +156%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$4 -39%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $28 −$14 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $17 −$16 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $17 +$34 +196%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight May 17 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli May 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $15 +$27 +180%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $15 +$24 +157%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $21 +$30 +145%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $16 +$20 +124%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $20 +$16 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Car Apr 18 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 18 $8 −$7 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 18? Apr 18 $57 −$40 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 18 $2 +$1 +56%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $22 +$4 +20%
Will Blackburn Rovers FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 18? Apr 17 $40 −$25 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 18? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 18? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 18? Apr 17 $8 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 17? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 +$5 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 17? Apr 17 $12 +$26 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 17? Apr 17 $19 +$26 +140%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 17? Apr 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 17? Apr 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 17? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 17 $34 +$18 +53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 17? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 19¢ $3 15m
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 45m
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 48m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 1h
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 1h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $8 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 11¢ $13 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $5 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $8 2h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 46¢ $5 10h
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $15 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 28h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 13d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 34¢ $17 25d
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C SELL Juan Diaz 100¢ $51 29d
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy BUY Christian Edwards 27¢ $7 29d
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Timmy Cuamba 26¢ $5 29d
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C BUY Juan Diaz 33¢ $17 29d
UFC Fight Night: Khaos Williams vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (Welterweight BUY Nikolay Veretennikov 49¢ $20 29d
UFC Fight Night: Tuco Tokkos vs. Ivan Erslan (Light Heavyweight, Preli BUY Tuco Tokkos 41¢ $12 29d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 30d
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $25 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.14 · official $26.01 · 415 history records