Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98ac…40d9
other · 1115 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,782 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,575 · open −$246
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$247
Realized−$6,575
Unrealized−$246
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses47 / 363
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions285
Markets (closed)410 / 1115
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day139.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 285 History 410 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,009
7 days−$2,551
14 days−$5,187
30 days−$6,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? Yes 6¢ 52¢ $4 $33 +$29 (+793%)
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? Yes 6¢ 88¢ $2 $22 +$21 (+1300%)
Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 25¢ $3 $21 +$18 (+725%)
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 5¢ 23¢ $4 $16 +$13 (+354%)
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 3¢ 8¢ $6 $16 +$9 (+147%)
Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? Yes 6¢ 19¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+223%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 11¢ 66¢ $2 $15 +$12 (+490%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 3¢ 18¢ $3 $15 +$12 (+477%)
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will Uruguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-40%)
Will Robbie Katter be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+69%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Matt Olson hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+186%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 20¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+360%)
Will Maria Fernanda Espinosa Garcés be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+624%)
Will Texas Rangers win the 2026 American League Championship Series? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Shohei Ohtani hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Pete Alonso hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 5¢ 36¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+697%)
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $12 $2 −$10 (-87%)
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Will Juan Soto hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jesper Bratt win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 0-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Owen Tippett win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mackenzie Blackwood win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Kumar Kushagra win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Season awa Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jaccob Slavin win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jake Guentzel win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Smaran Ravichandran win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Seaso Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Evan Bouchard win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alexis Tipton as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Be Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Juraj Slafkovsky win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nico Hischier win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rae Huang finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Quinn Hughes win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Cure - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alex Vlasic win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marcus Rashford record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champ Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on May 31? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -104%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 3, 2026? Jun 14 $0 −$4 -756%
Will Alex DeBrincat win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will David Ganezer receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Connor Bedard win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nazem Kadri win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$4 -185%
Will Ashwani Kumar win the 2026 IPL Emerging Player of the Season awar Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brad Marchand win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on May 31? Jun 14 $7 −$8 -112%
Will Adelante Andalucia (AA) win the Andalusia regional election? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mathew Barzal win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vinnie Brand be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Duchene win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 Iraq? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jacob Markstrom win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Drew Doughty win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Thatcher Demko win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DICK's Sporting Goods Q1 Dick's business comparable sales growth Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Evgeni Malkin win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brent Burns win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Make Them Cry - Drake" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Leandro Trossard record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Cham Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$5 -195%
Will Andrei Svechnikov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Dominik Szoboszlai record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Ch Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$2,767
politics 18% −$1,156
sports 13% −$608
tech 12% −$936
world 5% −$604
culture 5% −$150
economics 3% −$20
weather 1% +$2
crypto 0% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 8m
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? BUY No 99¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? BUY No 91¢ $9 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? BUY No 100¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? BUY No 99¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? BUY No 99¢ $10 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? BUY No 61¢ $6 22m
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? BUY No 51¢ $5 22m
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 48m
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 49m
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 26¢ $24 1h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 28¢ $16 1h
Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 74¢ $42 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 99¢ $56 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 97¢ $140 1h
Will Capitão Wagner win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 28¢ $12 1h
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 29¢ $29 1h
Will Eduardo Girão win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 74¢ $108 1h
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College World Series? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-46.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 -59.1% -63.0% 5% 5% -81.8%
≤30d 410 -41.2% -46.8% 11% 7% -85.5%
≤90d 410 -41.2% -46.8% 11% 7% -85.5%
all 410 -41.2% -46.8% 11% 7% -85.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover139.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -46.8% 7% -85.5%
10% ← realistic here -51.9% 5% -86.9%
15% -56.6% 5% -88.1%
20% -60.8% 5% -89.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.72 · official $242.13 · 3500 history records