Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
98 0x98b3…2bec other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$25 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$8
crypto 12% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤30d 2 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
≤90d 2 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
all 2 -18.9% -26.7% 50% 50% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 50% -25.6%
10% -33.7% 50% -32.8%
15% -40.1% 50% -39.3%
20% -46.0% 50% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$100 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,524
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,527 $1,518 −$9 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,532 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,523.84 · official $1,523.84 (match) · 7 history records