Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98b7…658a crypto 70 markets active 4d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate84%59W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$15
sports 8% +$8
other 6% −$26
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +1.1% -8.5% 92% 26% -7.9%
≤30d 50 +1.1% -8.5% 92% 26% -7.9%
≤90d 52 +4.6% -5.4% 92% 29% -7.6%
all 70 +0.2% -9.3% 84% 29% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 29% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 14% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 10% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses59 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage150d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records