Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:55:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98b8…4ab2 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$272 (-10%) realized −$272 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day83.2pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$316
other 30% −$266
world 12% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.9% -31.2% 30% 9% -29.4%
≤30d 23 -23.9% -31.2% 30% 9% -29.4%
≤90d 23 -23.9% -31.2% 30% 9% -29.4%
all 23 -23.9% -31.2% 30% 9% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover83.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 9% -29.4%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 4% -36.1%
15% -43.8% 4% -42.3%
20% -49.3% 4% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$40 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$272
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day83.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay $0 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Argentina $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) Argentina $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $39 −$2 -6%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $17 $0 -2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 $0 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $524 −$164 -31%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $103 −$52 -50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $237 −$89 -38%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $41 +$45 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $323 +$10 +3%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $262 −$98 -38%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $83 −$7 -9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $253 −$101 -40%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 21 $50 −$29 -58%
Spread: Belgium (-4.5) Jun 21 $13 −$6 -44%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 21 $118 −$81 -69%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $263 −$1 -0%
Spread: IR Iran (-3.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $200 +$9 +5%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $7 +$1 +10%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $12 +$1 +11%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $18 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $6 49m
Spread: Argentina (-5.5) SELL Argentina $1 50m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 37¢ $9 50m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 17¢ $4 50m
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) SELL Argentina $3 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $19 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 51m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 86¢ $22 51m
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) SELL Uruguay $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $183 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay $4 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 14¢ $29 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $68 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $346 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $6 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $4 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $19 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 21¢ $46 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 54¢ $117 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) SELL Uruguay $27 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay 23¢ $45 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 89¢ $177 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 58¢ $115 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $16 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $179 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay $37 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 27¢ $55 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 57¢ $115 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.88 · official $0.88 (match) · 108 history records