Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98b8…5c1b crypto 323 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+1%) realized +$107 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%322W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$115
14 days+$114
30 days+$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$115
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 322 +1.1% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 323 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 323 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 323 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 0% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×210.45 per $1 lost it wins $210.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses322 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)323 / 323
History coverage13d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 323 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $60 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $34 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $41 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 749 history records