Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98b9…b386 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-1%) realized +$0 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate65%30W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$4
other 21% +$6
sports 10% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +15.7% +4.6% 83% 67% +0.6%
≤30d 46 +1.7% -8.0% 65% 37% -7.7%
≤90d 46 +1.7% -8.0% 65% 37% -7.7%
all 46 +1.7% -8.0% 65% 37% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 37% -7.7%
10% -16.8% 30% -16.5%
15% -24.8% 24% -24.6%
20% -32.2% 15% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses30 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage14d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$13 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$8 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 +$7 +340%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$6 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $25 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $20 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 54m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $20 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 8d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 8d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 8d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $16 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.60 · official $65.60 (match) · 88 history records