Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:38:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98bd…8a55 sports 386 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,065 (+4%) realized +$4,048 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%189W / 196L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day21.8pace
Fees−$1,257est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,366
7 days+$1,586
14 days+$2,313
30 days+$4,836
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$8,317
other 17% −$3,957
crypto 2% −$1,534
world 0% +$347
politics 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +5.5% -4.5% 39% 39% -5.0%
≤30d 342 -3.2% -12.4% 50% 49% -5.0%
≤90d 385 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 48% -6.8%
all 385 -6.5% -15.4% 49% 48% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 48% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 44% -15.7%
15% -30.9% 39% -23.9%
20% -37.7% 31% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$213 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,015
Realized+$4,048
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses189 / 196
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$1,257
Open positions1
Markets (closed)385 / 386
History coverage34d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day21.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $997 $1,015 +$17 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 158 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $940 +$592 +63%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $959 −$950 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,563 +$809 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,213 +$321 +26%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $800 +$689 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,219 +$1,334 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $915 +$1,022 +112%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $224 +$265 +118%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $334 −$26 -8%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $917 −$584 -64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $92 −$91 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $304 −$296 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $420 −$25 -6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,015 −$1,000 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,313 −$1,300 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,023 +$3,325 +325%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,935 −$1,900 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,021 +$2,279 +223%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $112 +$118 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1,010 +$459 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,103 +$713 +65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $57 +$269 +474%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $184 −$182 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $979 −$957 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $202 +$117 +58%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $549 −$502 -91%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $305 −$299 -98%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $437 −$430 -98%
Tristan Schoolkate vs. Oliver Tarvet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $202 −$200 -99%
Iva Jovic vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $204 +$286 +141%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $448 +$121 +27%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $171 +$369 +216%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $145 +$26 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $369 −$226 -61%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $182 +$189 +104%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $392 −$389 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,211 −$1,191 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $361 −$357 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1,019 56m
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $510 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,532 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 60¢ $940 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $959 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 27¢ $307 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1,015 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,372 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,563 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $1,534 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,213 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $800 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,219 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,936 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $488 25h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 24¢ $205 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $224 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $915 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 53¢ $308 26h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $334 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 17¢ $332 43h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 45¢ $917 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $92 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $304 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $395 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $420 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $42 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,014.52 · official $1,014.87 (match) · 770 history records