Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

98 0x98be…5794 sports 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 194d

COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge

Total PnL +$8,108 (+15%) realized +$8,873 · open −$765

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate67%44W / 22L

Whale WR65%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$757per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Fees−$446est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$1,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$642

7 days+$1,101

14 days+$5,290

30 days+$10,779

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

worth copying (survives realistic slippage)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+15.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+14.6%	+3.6%	50%	50%	+15.5%
≤30d	40	+41.6%	+28.1%	68%	68%	+41.8%
≤90d	56	+25.5%	+13.6%	64%	62%	-0.7%
all	66	+27.1%	+15.0%	67%	62%	+3.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+15.0%	62%	+3.1%
10%	+4.0%	61%	-6.7%
15%	-6.1%	59%	-15.8%
20%	-15.3%	48%	-24.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

5% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +22% → late +32% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$603 vs −$976 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage

Net worth$1,345

Realized+$8,873

Unrealized−$765

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses44 / 22

Whale WR (big bets)65%

Est. fees paid−$446

Open positions5

Markets (closed)66 / 71

History coverage194d

Avg bet$757

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 66 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$735	$770	+$35 (+5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	69¢	$350	$347	−$3 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	43¢	42¢	$215	$212	−$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	70¢	2¢	$700	$15	−$685 (-98%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Belgium	22¢	0¢	$110	$0	−$110 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,003	+$997	+100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$442	−$355	-80%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$47	-93%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$331	−$320	-97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$1,226	+$561	+46%
Spread: United States (-1.5)	Jun 19	$360	+$640	+178%
Spread: United States (-2.5)	Jun 19	$155	+$125	+80%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$512	−$500	-98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 14	$512	+$488	+95%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)	Jun 14	$289	+$711	+246%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$2,185	+$4,815	+220%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$197	−$190	-97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$912	−$890	-98%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5)	Jun 13	$83	−$80	-96%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)	Jun 13	$176	−$170	-97%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5	Jun 13	$266	−$260	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$482	+$518	+107%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$364	+$417	+114%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 11	$332	+$168	+51%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Jun 11	$583	+$367	+63%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$3,160	+$2,912	+92%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Jun 11	$362	+$138	+38%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	Jun 10	$401	−$390	-97%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)	Jun 10	$406	−$394	-97%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5)	Jun 10	$289	−$280	-97%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 10	$3,030	−$3,920	-129%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Jun 10	$271	+$229	+84%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Jun 06	$41	+$59	+143%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 06	$37	+$63	+170%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 06	$45	+$55	+121%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 06	$48	+$52	+107%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 06	$588	+$762	+130%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)	Jun 04	$543	+$273	+50%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)	Jun 04	$401	+$298	+74%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Jun 04	$502	+$268	+53%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)	Jun 04	$583	+$258	+44%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)	Jun 04	$432	+$289	+67%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)	Jun 04	$462	+$538	+116%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$1,523	+$2,477	+163%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	Jun 03	$102	+$98	+95%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)	May 22	$127	+$73	+58%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)	May 22	$96	+$104	+107%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)	May 22	$105	+$95	+91%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 22	$410	+$190	+46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 20	$2,080	+$920	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET	May 12	$10	+$5	+51%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines	Apr 09	$500	−$500	-100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA	Apr 07	$5,400	−$5,400	-100%
Spread: Miami (-3.5)	Apr 07	$1,080	−$1,080	-100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots	Apr 07	$1,000	−$1,000	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$357	1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	43¢	$221	1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$208	3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	BUY Belgium	22¢	$114	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$713	3h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	SELL Germany	9¢	$87	25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$309	25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$171	28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	43¢	$442	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$693	28h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	SELL Scotland	0¢	$4	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$166	2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	5¢	$51	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$384	2d
Spread: United States (-2.5)	SELL United States	55¢	$269	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	80¢	$787	2d
Spread: United States (-2.5)	BUY United States	15¢	$155	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	16¢	$166	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	50¢	$512	2d
Spread: United States (-1.5)	BUY United States	35¢	$360	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$1,226	2d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	29¢	$299	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	34¢	$350	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	19¢	$197	7d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	22¢	$227	7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	19¢	$197	7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	30¢	$309	8d
Spread: Knicks (-15.5)	BUY Knicks	8¢	$83	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$603	8d
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)	BUY Knicks	28¢	$289	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,345.20 · official $1,385.25 · 338 history records