Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:55:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98be…4df8 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$1 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate67%28W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$16
economics 31% −$1
sports 7% +$24
crypto 2% −$16
tech 0% $0
other 0% +$5
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +41.4% +27.9% 100% 50% +26.7%
≤30d 2 +41.4% +27.9% 100% 50% +26.7%
≤90d 18 +55.0% +40.2% 67% 56% +3.4%
all 42 +21.6% +10.0% 67% 43% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 43% -9.6%
10% -0.5% 36% -18.2%
15% -10.1% 33% -26.1%
20% -18.9% 29% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$3,084
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses28 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage294d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 96¢ 95¢ $3,056 $3,054 −$2 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 22 $8 +$6 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 11 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Apr 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats Apr 10 $24 +$7 +28%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Apr 10 $15 +$17 +112%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou Mar 25 $5 +$12 +233%
Panthers vs. Flames Mar 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 25 $10 +$13 +127%
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Mar 25 $10 +$13 +133%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 25 $10 +$14 +144%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 25 $5 +$23 +456%
Murcia: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Mar 25 $11 +$18 +170%
Ostrava Open: Diane Parry vs Nikola Bartunkova Mar 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 20 $25 +$1 +2%
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 Feb 05 $27 −$9 -34%
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 Feb 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pieri vs Harmony Tan Jan 13 $20 +$9 +43%
Australian Open Men's: Billy Harris vs Chris Rodesch Jan 13 $29 +$19 +67%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrelli Jan 13 $70 +$50 +72%
Will "Five Nights at Freddy's 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less th Jan 12 $5 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 12 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 12 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jan 12 $15 +$6 +43%
Will Best Buy (BBY) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 06 $11 +$1 +11%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Dec 06 $22 +$4 +19%
Warriors vs. Magic Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Ducks vs. Panthers Nov 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Capitals vs. Stars Oct 29 $1 +$1 +75%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $5 +$1 +15%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Oct 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Sep 06 $300 −$8 -3%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Sep 06 $350 −$6 -2%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 06 $2,000 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Sep 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 05 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $3,062 1h
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anna Kalinskaya vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 54¢ $8 41d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 72d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 72d
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats BUY Arizona Wildcats 78¢ $24 88d
Rangers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Rangers 55¢ $25 88d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 66¢ $25 88d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes BUY Iowa Hawkeyes 47¢ $15 88d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY FaZe 66¢ $10 94d
Panthers vs. Flames BUY Flames 49¢ $10 94d
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu BUY Yibing Wu 54¢ $10 94d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Grou BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $5 94d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B BUY Liquid 44¢ $10 94d
Murcia: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 37¢ $11 94d
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez BUY Adam Walton 43¢ $10 94d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NRG (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A BUY NRG 41¢ $10 94d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY G2 Esports 18¢ $5 94d
Hurricanes vs. Maple Leafs BUY Maple Leafs 35¢ $10 94d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 98¢ $25 136d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 136d
Ostrava Open: Diane Parry vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Bartunkova 63¢ $48 136d
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 55¢ $18 136d
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $27 159d
VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 76¢ $40 159d
Australian Open Women's: Jessica Pieri vs Harmony Tan BUY Tan 70¢ $20 160d
Australian Open Men's: Billy Harris vs Chris Rodesch BUY Rodesch 60¢ $29 160d
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Giustino vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Maestrelli 58¢ $70 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,084.37 · official $3,084.37 (match) · 96 history records