Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98c1…3d1e crypto 602 markets active 2h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-1%) realized −$270 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate62%371W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$46
14 days+$54
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$77
other 35% −$557
sports 25% +$327
finance 3% −$75
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$7
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.5% -33.5% 52% 48% -13.4%
≤30d 70 -13.1% -21.4% 51% 49% -3.2%
≤90d 144 -9.7% -18.3% 48% 47% -20.0%
all 596 -0.7% -10.1% 62% 55% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 55% -11.0%
10% -18.7% 28% -19.5%
15% -26.6% 25% -27.3%
20% -33.8% 21% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses371 / 225
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions6
Markets (closed)596 / 602
History coverage170d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 78¢ 76¢ $339 $330 −$10 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 81¢ $171 $170 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $45 $88 +$43 (+96%)
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? No 64¢ 64¢ $33 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No $6 $11 +$4 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $95 +$45 +48%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $12 +$10 +86%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 23 $89 +$33 +37%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 23 $21 +$1 +3%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 23 $138 −$137 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $40 +$9 +21%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $20 +$8 +43%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $29 −$29 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $45 +$24 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 21 $11 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $80 +$46 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $32 +$8 +24%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Alexander Isak: 3+ shots Jun 20 $9 +$5 +56%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $76 +$30 +40%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $126 +$30 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $88 +$39 +44%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $16 −$16 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $40 +$27 +67%
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $63 +$25 +39%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $113 +$28 +24%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $70 −$69 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $29 +$12 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$45 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 +$49 +80%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$26 +152%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $14 +$13 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 −$5 -99%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 14 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $96 +$30 +32%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $16 +$27 +165%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 +$50 +109%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $38 +$12 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $14 +$10 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? BUY No 64¢ $33 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 77¢ $115 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $129 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 81¢ $187 6h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $83 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $104 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $139 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $96 28h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 29¢ $18 28h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 81¢ $64 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $87 33h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $13 33h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $7 33h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $23 33h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $2 34h
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $2 34h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 35h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $11 35h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 68¢ $13 35h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 73¢ $36 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $53 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $31 2d
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL Yes $21 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 60¢ $31 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $2 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $7 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $5 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $4 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY No 63¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $649.49 · official $649.42 (match) · 2030 history records