Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
98 0x98c3…b28d other 26 markets active 8h ago coverage 254d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$75,247 (+29%) realized +$75,333 · open −$86
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%14W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$9,928per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$878est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$29,913now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,081
7 days+$39,478
14 days+$39,478
30 days+$39,478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$14,491
sports 16% +$34,900
crypto 14% +$33,757
world 4% −$10,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +23.7% +11.9% 55% 55% +9.1%
≤30d 20 +23.7% +11.9% 55% 55% +9.1%
≤90d 21 +31.9% +19.3% 57% 57% +16.9%
all 23 +34.3% +21.5% 61% 61% +19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.5% 61% +19.7%
10% ← realistic here +9.9% 61% +8.2%
15% -0.7% 61% -2.3%
20% -10.4% 43% -11.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$10,150) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11,342 vs −$9,506 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$29,913
Realized+$75,333
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses14 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$878
Open positions3
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage254d
Avg bet$9,928
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $10,000 $10,288 +$288 (+3%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $10,000 $9,833 −$167 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10,000 $9,792 −$208 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10,084 +$3,805 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10,174 +$13,636 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,129 +$7,415 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,069 −$10,000 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10,093 +$4,400 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10,099 +$4,826 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,112 +$14,888 +291%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,150 +$9,850 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10,210 +$23,123 +226%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,117 −$10,000 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,147 −$10,000 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,102 −$10,000 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10,216 +$25,498 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10,138 −$10,138 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,129 −$10,129 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5,111 −$5,111 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,054 −$10,054 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,123 −$10,123 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10,114 +$6,015 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10,162 +$11,577 +114%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? May 08 $10,000 +$19,564 +196%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Nov 02 $10,000 +$7,621 +76%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 02 $15,000 +$6,572 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10,210 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $8,202 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,026 8h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $10,144 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $10,084 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10,174 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2,409 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $7,715 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10,069 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10,093 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10,099 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5,112 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10,117 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10,147 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,102 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $10,150 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10,210 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10,216 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10,054 5d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5,111 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $10,129 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $10,114 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10,123 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,081 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5,081 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 5d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? BUY No 34¢ $10,000 253d
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? BUY No 70¢ $15,000 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29,913.46 · official $29,913.46 (match) · 57 history records