Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98c3…3ce1 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-15%) realized −$8 · open −$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$103
other 49% −$156
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +21.5% +9.9% 67% 67% -33.3%
≤30d 6 -21.6% -29.0% 50% 33% -41.6%
≤90d 7 -32.8% -39.2% 43% 29% -41.7%
all 7 -32.8% -39.2% 43% 29% -41.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 29% -41.7%
10% -45.0% 14% -47.3%
15% -50.3% 14% -52.4%
20% -55.2% 14% -57.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$51 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$84
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage30d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$101 -50%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$18 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $3 +$3 +97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $90 −$90 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $88 +$5 +6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 43m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 25¢ $49 49m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $101 54m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 27¢ $53 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 50¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 73¢ $119 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 50¢ $3 6d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 85¢ $90 24d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven SELL Usyk 100¢ $94 24d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Usyk 94¢ $88 24d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $10 29d
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? BUY No 64¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.25 · official $17.19 (match) · 14 history records