Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98c7…0a77 weather 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%90W / 1L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.4%
all 91 -0.1% -9.6% 99% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses90 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage90d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 4? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 3? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? Jun 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 31? Jun 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 25? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 24? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 23? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 22? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 20? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 17? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 16? May 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 15? May 16 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 14? May 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on May 13? May 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 11? May 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on May 10? May 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or higher on May 9? May 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C or higher on May 7? May 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 6? May 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on May 6? May 07 $32 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 5? May 06 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on May 4? May 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on May 3? May 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on May 2? May 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 9°C on May 1? May 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on April 30? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on April 30? May 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on April 29? Apr 30 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $43 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $43 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 BUY No 100¢ $43 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $43 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $43 7d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $43 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $43 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $43 10d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $43 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $39 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $43 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $43 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $42 16d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $42 17d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $42 18d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $42 20d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $41 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $41 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $31 23d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C or higher on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $41 24d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $41 26d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $41 27d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $41 28d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $41 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $1 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.96 · official $42.96 (match) · 182 history records