Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:41:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
98 0x98ce…d417 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,605 (-17%) realized −$4,378 · open −$227
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%24W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$319est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,726now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,627
7 days−$6,153
14 days−$5,263
30 days−$4,812
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$4,135
other 3% −$739
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -45.1% -50.4% 31% 31% -42.9%
≤30d 30 -6.8% -15.7% 53% 53% -31.7%
≤90d 42 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 57% -29.1%
all 42 +0.9% -8.7% 57% 57% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 57% -29.1%
10% -17.5% 57% -35.9%
15% -25.5% 55% -42.1%
20% -32.8% 45% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +28% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$651 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$4,726
Realized−$4,378
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses24 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$319
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage46d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Over 62¢ 60¢ $4,846 $4,618 −$228 (-5%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Cincinnati Reds 50¢ 50¢ $107 $108 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $1,668 +$422 +25%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $5,093 −$4,971 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 26 $106 −$104 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $478 −$469 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 26 $235 +$107 +46%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $477 −$468 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $1,616 +$2,128 +132%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $2,544 +$1,727 +68%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1,816 −$1,796 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $1,704 −$1,680 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 23 $141 −$139 -99%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $193 −$111 -57%
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 21 $803 −$800 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $558 +$621 +111%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $236 +$99 +42%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $177 +$114 +64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $212 +$111 +52%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $162 +$105 +65%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $79 −$78 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $137 +$116 +85%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $114 +$106 +93%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $223 +$107 +48%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $130 −$128 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $109 +$105 +97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $114 +$106 +93%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 06 $169 +$109 +65%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $234 −$232 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $210 +$141 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 26 $114 −$112 -99%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $114 −$112 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $101 +$84 +83%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $82 +$106 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $145 +$106 +73%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 24 $144 +$110 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $120 −$118 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$108 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $192 +$109 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $252 +$110 +44%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 15 $165 +$107 +65%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 13 $335 −$332 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $109 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3,034 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $888 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 50¢ $49 3h
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $978 6h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $106 28h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $478 29h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $3,052 30h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $2,041 31h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $477 41h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $893 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $923 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $2,544 2d
Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 68¢ $235 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $85 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $1,531 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 80¢ $1,339 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $1,704 3d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 77¢ $97 3d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $232 4d
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 56¢ $141 4d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 73¢ $60 6d
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 30¢ $133 6d
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 88¢ $803 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $450 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $109 8d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY No 83¢ $55 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $122 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 52¢ $109 13d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $115 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,725.62 · official $4,725.62 (match) · 91 history records