Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98cf…a15a other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$386 (-14%) realized −$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%7W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$230
7 days−$77
14 days+$167
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$520
world 24% −$638
sports 14% +$275
crypto 9% −$244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.8% -28.3% 20% 20% -15.9%
≤30d 32 -3.0% -12.2% 22% 22% -12.5%
≤90d 32 -3.0% -12.2% 22% 22% -12.5%
all 32 -3.0% -12.2% 22% 22% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 22% -12.5%
10% -20.6% 22% -20.9%
15% -28.3% 22% -28.5%
20% -35.3% 22% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$64 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses7 / 25
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage16d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $153 +$330 +216%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 +$334 +327%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $203 −$103 -51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$126 +62%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$81 +786%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$243 +238%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$309 +152%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$100 +392%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$149 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $483 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $437 3d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $100 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 6d
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 9d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $36 13d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 13d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $98 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records