Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d0…f14a politics 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$54,502 (+16%) realized +$47,495 · open +$7,007
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate75%214W / 70L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$1,106per market
Trades / day50.8pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$25,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,110
7 days−$2,277
14 days+$2,358
30 days+$10,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% +$36,360
other 7% +$693
sports 1% −$952
economics 1% +$714
world 1% +$664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -19.5% -27.1% 54% 35% -13.4%
≤30d 151 +0.7% -8.9% 72% 36% -3.7%
≤90d 284 +17.6% +6.4% 75% 35% -1.2%
all 284 +17.6% +6.4% 75% 35% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 35% -1.2%
10% -3.8% 23% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here -13.1% 17% -19.3%
20% -21.6% 14% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,254) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$235 vs −$284 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$25,684
Realized+$47,495
Unrealized+$7,007
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses214 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions17
Markets (closed)284 / 301
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$1,106
Trades / day50.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 90¢ 90¢ $10,125 $10,069 −$56 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 40¢ 96¢ $2,749 $6,531 +$3,782 (+138%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 63¢ 98¢ $2,766 $4,296 +$1,530 (+55%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? No 30¢ 98¢ $445 $1,451 +$1,005 (+226%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 99¢ $411 $592 +$181 (+44%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $452 $457 +$5 (+1%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 13¢ 52¢ $98 $387 +$290 (+297%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $332 $378 +$46 (+14%)
Will Mike Collins win the Georgia Republican Senate Primary runoff election by 10–15%? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $257 $307 +$50 (+20%)
Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $257 $307 +$50 (+20%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 77¢ 99¢ $227 $289 +$62 (+28%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $192 $191 −$1 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 84¢ $125 $182 +$57 (+46%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? No 88¢ 99¢ $42 $48 +$6 (+13%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 90¢ 97¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $143 −$141 -99%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $203 −$96 -47%
Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 19 $1,225 −$1,063 -87%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $414 −$222 -54%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 19 $233 +$152 +66%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $3,291 +$37 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $1,191 −$66 -6%
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $724 +$3 +0%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $1,555 +$124 +8%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $69 +$6 +8%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,922 +$78 +1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $73 +$6 +9%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $182 +$9 +5%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $115 −$115 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $62 +$51 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $140 +$86 +61%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,926 +$462 +16%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $275 −$275 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$32 +40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $62 +$53 +84%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $148 +$67 +45%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$62 +41%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $2,898 +$456 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$31 +38%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $118 +$97 +83%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $4,391 +$455 +10%
Will Joyce Marie Griggs be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $171 −$171 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Amanda Hollowell be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $138 −$13 -9%
Will Randy Zurcher be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Sharon Stokes-Williamson be the Democratic Nominee for GA-01? Jun 17 $21 +$1 +5%
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $1,631 +$714 +44%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $356 +$41 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $137 −$137 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $7,929 −$5,369 -68%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $124 +$91 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $124 +$94 +76%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $132 −$132 -100%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 15 $285 −$276 -97%
Will James Settelmeyer be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 15 $330 −$321 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $896 −$896 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 94¢ $453 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $141 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $193 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $125 2h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $2,025 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $1,143 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $287 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $128 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $411 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $143 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $244 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $256 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $45 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $1,743 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $6 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $56 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $826 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $12 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $1,366 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $180 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $246 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $13 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $225 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $90 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $506 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $307 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $0 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 90¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,684.00 · official $25,684.00 (match) · 3500 history records