Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

98
0x98d1…019a
weather · 484 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$915 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$917 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized+$917
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses150 / 331
Open positions3
Markets (closed)481 / 484
History coverage156d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 481 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$2
14 days+$70
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$28 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -46%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 −$3 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$44 +212%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 +$7 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$19 +178%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $19 +$14 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $38 −$20 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 −$18 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 04 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 2? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? Jun 04 $21 −$11 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? Jun 04 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29? Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 +$80 +308%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $13 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 4? Jun 03 $22 +$11 +49%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +161%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $21 +$43 +209%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $17 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $10 +$31 +298%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $4 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $3 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $10 +$12 +120%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $4 −$3 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29? May 29 $9 +$13 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 99% +$934
other 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$11
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 49m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 35¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 22h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $21 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? SELL Yes 15¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? BUY Yes 41¢ $23 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.0% +1.3% 32% 32% -8.9%
≤30d 98 -9.3% -17.9% 22% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 292 -8.4% -17.2% 25% 22% -2.5%
all 481 +5.5% -4.6% 31% 27% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 27% +4.6%
10% -13.7% 26% -5.4%
15% -22.0% 24% -14.5%
20% -29.7% 22% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.42 · official $22.07 (match) · 2101 history records