Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d7…f41a other 237 markets active 8h ago coverage 383d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$515 (-3%) realized −$506 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate42%75W / 104L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$8
14 days−$801
30 days−$787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$241
sports 14% −$32
crypto 7% −$425
finance 1% +$33
world 1% −$1
economics 0% −$15
politics 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +1.8% -7.9% 62% 54% -9.1%
≤30d 146 -14.7% -22.8% 41% 34% -14.9%
≤90d 163 -11.0% -19.4% 41% 33% -14.1%
all 179 -5.6% -14.6% 42% 35% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 35% -13.2%
10% -22.8% 25% -21.5%
15% -30.2% 23% -29.1%
20% -37.1% 22% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

383d coverage
Net worth$1,903
Realized−$506
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses75 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions58
Markets (closed)179 / 237
History coverage383d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 58 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $31 $91 +$60 (+195%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? No 90¢ 90¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Norway leading at halftime? No 67¢ 68¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $58 $57 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 50¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? No 73¢ 72¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 57¢ 58¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? No 97¢ 97¢ $48 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 44¢ 42¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? No 94¢ 92¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? No 93¢ 92¢ $43 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? No 87¢ 86¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? No 91¢ 90¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? No 91¢ 90¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? No 91¢ 90¢ $41 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? No 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? No 95¢ 95¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? No 93¢ 92¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $38 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 37¢ 34¢ $41 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? No 90¢ 90¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? No 87¢ 86¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $39 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $40 +$3 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $41 +$25 +60%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 +$4 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $36 +$5 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $85 −$18 -21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $40 +$4 +11%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $80 +$6 +8%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $78 +$32 +41%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $54 −$53 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $72 −$72 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $40 +$5 +12%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $42 +$28 +66%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $37 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $37 +$6 +16%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $37 +$5 +13%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $16 +$5 +29%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $40 +$27 +68%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $15 +$10 +70%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $46 +$3 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $47 +$30 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $27 −$27 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $9 +$14 +158%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $11 +$14 +134%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 +$14 +197%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $37 +$6 +17%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$1 -9%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $40 +$4 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $48 +$7 +14%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $37 +$5 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$31 +206%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $28 +$3 +13%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $25 −$24 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $44 −$33 -74%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $11 +$10 +93%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $43 +$5 +12%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $8 +$16 +197%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$9 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -99%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $37 −$36 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY No 92¢ $40 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $12 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 59¢ $13 8h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $12 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 94¢ $44 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $9 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 23¢ $5 8h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY No 77¢ $18 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $16 8h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 98¢ $40 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $13 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $9 8h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 37¢ $8 8h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY No 89¢ $19 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $19 9h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 91¢ $41 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 9h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $12 9h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 61¢ $13 9h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $12 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $9 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY No 87¢ $36 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $11 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 10h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $8 10h
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $14 10h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $17 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,903.41 · official $1,903.68 (match) · 864 history records