Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98d9…65c9 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+18%) realized −$193 · open +$326
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$799now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$14
other 38% +$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$193 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$799
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$326
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 100¢ $151 $491 +$340 (+225%)
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan Andre Ilagan 57¢ 52¢ $241 $218 −$23 (-9%)
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto Mwendwa Mbithi 46¢ 51¢ $81 $90 +$9 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $193 −$193 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 59¢ $101 6m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 59¢ $25 6m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 55¢ $29 9m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 55¢ $22 9m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 55¢ $29 9m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 54¢ $20 9m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 55¢ $9 9m
Cary: Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan BUY Andre Ilagan 55¢ $8 9m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 51¢ $253 18m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 54¢ $5 20m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 53¢ $1 20m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 53¢ $2 20m
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto SELL Mwendwa Mbithi 54¢ $8 21m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 48m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $92 49m
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $16 1h
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $1 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $40 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $89 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $27 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $38 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 47¢ $46 1h
Quito: Mwendwa Mbithi vs Matias Soto BUY Mwendwa Mbithi 43¢ $87 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 66¢ $193 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.85 · official $798.87 (match) · 28 history records