Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:43:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
98 0x98da…a9eb crypto 515 markets active 0h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$22,979 (-9%) realized −$21,722 · open −$1,257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%248W / 266L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$466est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,640
7 days+$4,488
14 days+$3,049
30 days+$3,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$23,781
sports 19% −$3,577
other 0% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +18.1% +6.8% 48% 48% +13.3%
≤30d 76 +5.5% -4.6% 49% 47% -0.9%
≤90d 127 +2.1% -7.7% 46% 46% -10.6%
all 514 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 47% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -18.6%
10% -22.6% 46% -26.4%
15% -30.1% 45% -33.5%
20% -36.9% 41% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$582) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$417 vs −$487 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$21,722
Unrealized−$1,257
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses248 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$466
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 515
History coverage201d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 514 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1,270 $13 −$1,257 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 217 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $445 −$421 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $512 +$189 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $289 +$248 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1,239 −$1,200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $517 −$467 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $940 −$910 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1,014 +$934 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $641 +$567 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $800 +$671 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $705 +$435 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $490 +$711 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $483 +$300 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $1,018 −$992 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $254 −$245 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,501 +$1,345 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $492 +$539 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $975 +$1,392 +143%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $588 +$485 +82%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $856 +$937 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $595 −$586 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$574 +1116%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $99 +$205 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $761 +$710 +93%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $138 −$135 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$92 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $561 −$543 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $269 −$257 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $555 +$343 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $307 +$275 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $147 +$74 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $158 −$152 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $495 −$477 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $341 −$331 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $351 +$287 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $294 +$255 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $159 −$150 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $105 −$105 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$100 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 08 $85 +$79 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 08 $207 −$200 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $792 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $244 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $59 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $220 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $445 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $512 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $289 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $294 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $627 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $317 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $51 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $303 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $215 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $426 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $143 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $372 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $498 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $515 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $421 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $220 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $619 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1,202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $417 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $74 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $404 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $395 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $483 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.07 · official $13.07 (match) · 1055 history records