Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98dc…9949 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 596d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,903 (-42%) realized −$9,445 · open −$458
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%28W / 91L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$2,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$557
30 days+$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$5,836
world 24% −$1,048
other 21% −$810
economics 10% −$725
crypto 6% −$785
tech 4% −$27
culture 2% −$452
finance 2% +$9
sports 1% −$176
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +17.6% +6.4% 38% 38% +59.4%
≤90d 49 -52.0% -56.6% 18% 14% -32.3%
all 119 -32.5% -38.9% 24% 19% -51.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.9% 19% -51.2%
10% -44.8% 18% -55.9%
15% -50.1% 18% -60.1%
20% -55.0% 16% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$141 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

596d coverage
Net worth$2,446
Realized−$9,445
Unrealized−$458
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses28 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)119 / 138
History coverage596d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,000 $1,044 +$44 (+4%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $499 $603 +$104 (+21%)
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? Yes 23¢ 29¢ $150 $187 +$37 (+25%)
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $66 $86 +$20 (+30%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $101 $80 −$21 (-21%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $100 $65 −$35 (-35%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 12¢ $100 $54 −$46 (-46%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $100 $47 −$53 (-53%)
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? Yes 47¢ 34¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $50 $33 −$17 (-33%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-39%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $100 $10 −$90 (-90%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $50 $6 −$43 (-87%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? Yes 23¢ 1¢ $87 $3 −$84 (-96%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $598 +$607 +101%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $350 +$71 +20%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $151 +$626 +414%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $146 −$31 -22%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $87 −$64 -73%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 18 $51 +$45 +90%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 11 $76 −$7 -9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 10 $492 +$19 +4%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2 May 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $50 +$47 +94%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$11 -21%
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 15 $100 +$279 +280%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 6? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Apr 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 17? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 24? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Apr 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Apr 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in November 2025? Apr 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 15 $121 −$121 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Apr 15 $35 −$35 -100%
US strikes Iran by October 31? Apr 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in October? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by November 30? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Apr 15 $199 −$79 -40%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Apr 15 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Apr 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Israel strikes Iran before 2026? Apr 15 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Apr 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Apr 15 $499 −$499 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $375 +$290 +77%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $728 −$687 -94%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $100 −$73 -73%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $18 1h
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 22¢ $28 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $321 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $141 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $978 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 5d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 5d
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $216 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 40¢ $48 9d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $51 12d
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $100 16d
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 23¢ $156 17d
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 18d
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 18d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Thunder 46¢ $51 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $105 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 19d
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 22d
Nawaf Salam out as Lebanon PM in 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 22d
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $104 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $376 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $250 24d
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 25d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $940 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,445.67 · official $2,445.47 (match) · 485 history records