Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
98 0x98dd…1114 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$286 (-36%) realized −$284 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$60
14 days−$60
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$88
world 12% −$100
economics 12% −$100
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-53.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 50% -36.8%
≤30d 2 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 50% -36.8%
≤90d 2 -31.1% -37.7% 50% 50% -36.8%
all 6 -48.1% -53.1% 33% 33% -52.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.1% 33% -52.8%
10% -57.6% 33% -57.3%
15% -61.7% 33% -61.4%
20% -65.4% 17% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$100 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$284
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage118d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $178 $177 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$38 +38%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 13 $100 +$74 +74%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Feb 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.50 · official $197.50 (match) · 17 history records