Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98e0…bf01 other 926 markets active 2h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,765 (-7%) realized −$7,898 · open +$133
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%643W / 274L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$461now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$221
7 days+$318
14 days+$254
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$4,042
sports 31% −$1,810
politics 6% −$173
world 3% −$492
weather 2% −$335
culture 1% −$22
tech 1% +$3
finance 1% +$29
crypto 1% +$41
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +17.7% +6.5% 68% 59% +8.6%
≤30d 45 +14.6% +3.6% 64% 51% -1.1%
≤90d 131 +0.6% -9.0% 63% 51% -7.8%
all 917 -5.9% -14.8% 70% 44% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 44% -15.5%
10% -23.0% 24% -23.6%
15% -30.4% 11% -30.9%
20% -37.2% 6% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$82 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$461
Realized−$7,898
Unrealized+$133
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses643 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions9
Markets (closed)917 / 926
History coverage574d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 917 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 65¢ 78¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ $0 $101 +$101 (+0%)
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists No 84¢ 81¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists No 71¢ 67¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+46%)
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Under 68¢ 77¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $114 +$116 +102%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $101 +$13 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $111 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 21 $54 +$12 +23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $50 +$45 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $70 +$35 +50%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $125 −$55 -44%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $124 +$20 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $104 +$19 +18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$19 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$13 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $36 +$11 +30%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$62 -62%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $201 +$52 +26%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$39 +77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $109 +$7 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $108 +$52 +48%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $100 −$56 -56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 +$8 +14%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 +$10 +23%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $32 +$14 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $531 −$162 -30%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $51 −$48 -93%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $80 +$15 +18%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $53 +$33 +62%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Panathinaikos Jun 08 $15 +$6 +40%
France vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $100 +$7 +7%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 08 $101 +$34 +34%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $152 $0 +0%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. JEF United Ichihara Chiba end in a draw? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $100 +$7 +7%
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5 May 23 $21 $0 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 23 $14 +$7 +50%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $113 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $11 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 68¢ $29 1h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists BUY No 84¢ $50 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists BUY No 71¢ $50 1h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $101 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $114 4h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 77¢ $114 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $111 24h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $51 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $50 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 81¢ $54 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $104 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $70 32h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $69 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $101 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 84¢ $101 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $43 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 83¢ $101 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $124 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 100¢ $124 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 84¢ $104 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $113 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $85 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $47 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 34¢ $38 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 88¢ $100 6d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $36 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $100 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $253 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $460.96 · official $460.97 (match) · 1906 history records