Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
98 0x98e8…d17b crypto 561 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,415 (+16%) realized +$2,415 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%307W / 254L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day42.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$546
14 days+$379
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$539
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -15.1% -23.2% 45% 41% -23.0%
≤30d 561 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 49% -6.3%
≤90d 561 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 49% -6.3%
all 561 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 49% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 49% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 43% -15.3%
15% -25.7% 36% -23.5%
20% -32.9% 27% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$16 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,415
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses307 / 254
Open positions0
Markets (closed)561 / 561
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 561 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$4 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $22 −$9 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$13 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$3 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$22 -69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$13 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$13 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$3 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$15 +106%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $39 +$7 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$11 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$10 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $7 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records