Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98ea…b1c6 crypto 389 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-5%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate53%205W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$62
other 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 16% -8.9%
≤30d 77 +0.8% -8.8% 91% 16% -8.9%
≤90d 389 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 24% -15.3%
all 389 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 24% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 24% -15.3%
10% -20.5% 16% -23.4%
15% -28.2% 9% -30.8%
20% -35.2% 3% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses205 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)389 / 389
History coverage90d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 389 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1158 history records