Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:56:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98ef…1d33 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 118L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$11
other 26% −$16
sports 19% −$10
crypto 8% −$3
economics 6% −$4
culture 5% −$5
world 3% +$2
finance 3% −$6
tech 2% −$1
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 66 -0.8% -10.3% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 118 -0.5% -10.0% 16% 0% -9.8%
all 146 -0.5% -10.0% 19% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage108d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? No 93¢ 93¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $47 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 15 $62 $0 -1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -2%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $70 −$2 -2%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $213 −$3 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $184 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $40 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $65 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $452 +$5 +1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $18 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $149 −$1 -1%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $54 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $626 −$2 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 04 $54 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $216 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $38 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 6h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 6h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $46 7h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $47 13h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $44 14h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $43 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 21h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 27h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $28 28h
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $29 34h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $16 35h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $16 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 42h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $57 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $48 2d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $55 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $55 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $50 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.89 · official $37.89 (match) · 565 history records