Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

98 0x98f1…d0e9 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR22%break-even

Win rate89%8W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$137per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +22%

net ROI/market (all)-11.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	9	-2.4%	-11.7%	89%	22%	-5.8%
≤30d	9	-2.4%	-11.7%	89%	22%	-5.8%
≤90d	9	-2.4%	-11.7%	89%	22%	-5.8%
all	9	-2.4%	-11.7%	89%	22%	-5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-11.7%	22%	-5.8%
10%	-20.2%	11%	-14.8%
15%	-27.9%	11%	-23.0%
20%	-35.0%	0%	-30.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 71% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

75% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$64 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)89%

Wins / losses8 / 1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)9 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$137

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 9 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$349	+$44	+12%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$190	+$5	+3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$145	+$8	+6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$107	+$39	+36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$102	+$4	+4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$96	+$6	+6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$92	+$4	+4%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$87	+$6	+7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$64	−$64	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$202	15m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	97¢	$196	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	SELL No	99¢	$195	1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY No	96¢	$190	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	86¢	$191	2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$153	2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	95¢	$145	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	95¢	$145	8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	69¢	$107	11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$102	25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	94¢	$96	32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	100¢	$96	33h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$92	35h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	100¢	$93	2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	93¢	$87	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$64	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records