Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:38:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

98 0x98f1…96fe other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip

Net edge-38%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$513per market

Trades / day12.1pace

Fees−$34est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$2,312now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-33.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-25.9%	-33.0%	50%	50%	+12.9%
≤30d	4	-25.9%	-33.0%	50%	50%	+12.9%
≤90d	4	-25.9%	-33.0%	50%	50%	+12.9%
all	4	-25.9%	-33.0%	50%	50%	+12.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-33.0%	50%	+12.9%
10%	-39.4%	50%	+2.1%
15%	-45.2%	25%	-7.8%
20%	-50.6%	25%	-16.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -26% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$166 vs −$10 · ×16.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×16.6 per $1 lost it wins $16.6

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,312

Realized−$30

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Est. fees paid−$34

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$513

Trades / day12.1

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Germany	48¢	48¢	$2,009	$2,011	+$2 (+0%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	Under	57¢	56¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	24¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$1,218	+$318	+26%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan?	Jun 29	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 29	$20	+$14	+70%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	48¢	$1,016	0m
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	50¢	$508	19m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,249	32m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	14¢	$287	43m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	25¢	$102	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Germany	47¢	$508	3h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$203	3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$102	16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,311.98 · official $2,312.01 (match) · 15 history records