Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:10:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
98 0x98f6…79d2 sports 612 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,091 (+2%) realized +$2,109 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%292W / 312L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1,137
14 days+$177
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$3,546
other 20% −$1,415
world 3% +$368
politics 2% +$82
crypto 1% −$677
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 75% 75% +21.8%
≤30d 69 -1.2% -10.6% 55% 55% -8.7%
≤90d 169 -2.6% -11.9% 56% 56% -5.4%
all 604 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 47% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 47% -7.6%
10% -24.2% 45% -16.4%
15% -31.6% 41% -24.5%
20% -38.3% 33% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$96 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized+$2,109
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses292 / 312
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions7
Markets (closed)604 / 612
History coverage616d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 604 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 55¢ 41¢ $400 $299 −$101 (-25%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $150 $219 +$69 (+46%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $150 $160 +$10 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 68¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 77¢ 100¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $150 $126 −$24 (-16%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 17 $31 +$43 +140%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $61 +$57 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $40 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,826 +$389 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,162 +$662 +57%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $804 −$800 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $71 +$50 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $101 +$58 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $101 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 +$176 +172%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 +$34 +165%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$35 +114%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 05 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 +$40 +79%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $405 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $151 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $101 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 41¢ $31 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 3d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $154 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $1,826 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $1,162 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 84¢ $804 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $104 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-1 BUY 19¢ $24 7d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 48¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $71 7d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $51 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $61 9d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 63¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $101 9d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $71 9d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $71 9d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $61 9d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 55¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $51 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 73¢ $101 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 24¢ $31 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $61 11d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 32¢ $41 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,097.28 · official $1,097.28 (match) · 1534 history records