Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98f7…e2a4 other 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$321 (-1%) realized −$223 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate49%82W / 84L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,916now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$125
14 days+$135
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$3
crypto 11% +$11
finance 5% −$2
sports 3% −$514
politics 2% −$5
world 1% +$1
economics 0% +$2
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -78.8% -80.8% 21% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 96 -39.1% -44.9% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 166 -32.2% -38.6% 49% 5% -10.7%
all 166 -32.2% -38.6% 49% 5% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.6% 5% -10.7%
10% -44.5% 4% -19.2%
15% -49.9% 2% -27.0%
20% -54.8% 1% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,916
Realized−$223
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses82 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions45
Markets (closed)166 / 150
History coverage68d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $954 $954 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $481 $482 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 99¢ 61¢ $394 $246 −$148 (-38%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $18 $39 +$21 (+115%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $24 $35 +$10 (+42%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $21 +$5 (+29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 19¢ $2 $19 +$18 (+1060%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 15¢ $2 $15 +$13 (+809%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+731%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $21 $13 −$8 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+551%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+371%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+221%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+203%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+197%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $874 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $396 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $548 +$22 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $1,610 +$20 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $484 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $179 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $39 −$38 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $768 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $593 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $579 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $639 +$56 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $381 +$7 +2%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,101 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $404 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,827 +$136 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2,897 +$22 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $481 1h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $954 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $97 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $33 20h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $183 45h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 46h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $473 47h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 47h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $205 47h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $196 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $570 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $874 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $110 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $445 2d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $947 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $548 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $241 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $148 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $181 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $34 4d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $396 4d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $179 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $945 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,915.94 · official $1,916.14 (match) · 546 history records