Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
98 0x98f8…5a5b crypto 173 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-3%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate76%131W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$72
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$58
other 20% −$56
sports 3% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 39% -7.5%
≤30d 160 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 39% -7.5%
≤90d 160 +2.4% -7.3% 78% 39% -7.5%
all 173 +1.1% -8.5% 76% 38% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 38% -10.9%
10% -17.3% 14% -19.4%
15% -25.2% 9% -27.2%
20% -32.6% 3% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses131 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage165d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $81 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $130 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $111 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $101 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$9 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$20 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $82 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $62 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $60 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $40 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $31 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 535 history records