Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
98 0x98fc…f5b7 crypto 545 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$122 (-1%) realized −$154 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate85%462W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$184
other 3% +$19
sports 0% +$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +47.4% +33.4% 21% 17% -6.4%
≤30d 24 +47.4% +33.4% 21% 17% -6.4%
≤90d 24 +47.4% +33.4% 21% 17% -6.4%
all 542 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 11% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 11% -10.2%
10% -16.6% 8% -18.8%
15% -24.7% 6% -26.6%
20% -32.1% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$154
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses462 / 80
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)542 / 545
History coverage157d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? No 79¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 64¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 56¢ 26¢ $11 $5 −$6 (-52%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $464 +$29 +6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$12 -54%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$18 +1779%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 +$4 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$14 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 07 $55 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 07 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 07 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 07 $55 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 06 $54 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 06 $105 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Feb 06 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Feb 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 06 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 05 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 05 $53 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 05 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 05 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 05 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 05 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 05 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 05 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 05 $53 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 04 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 04 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 04 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $13 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $487 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $36 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $6 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $6 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 55¢ $5 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 4h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 19h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $423 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 21h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 21h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 94¢ $19 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.25 · official $57.25 (match) · 2293 history records