Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

98 0x98fd…c479 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$1,080 (-66%) realized −$1,077 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip

Net edge-78%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate12%1W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$163per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$104

7 days−$208

14 days−$208

30 days−$799

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)-77.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	5	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤90d	8	-75.4%	-77.7%	12%	12%	-80.7%
all	8	-75.4%	-77.7%	12%	12%	-80.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-77.7%	12%	-80.7%
10%	-79.8%	12%	-82.6%
15%	-81.8%	12%	-84.2%
20%	-83.6%	12%	-85.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -75% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$145 vs −$176 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.12 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage

Net worth$90

Realized−$1,077

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)12%

Wins / losses1 / 7

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 10

History coverage35d

Avg bet$163

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$93	$90	−$3 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$107	−$104	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$107	−$104	-98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 30	$307	−$300	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	May 29	$150	−$145	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	May 29	$150	−$145	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	May 14	$152	−$147	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	May 14	$293	−$283	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	May 14	$149	+$145	+97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	15¢	$95	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$107	16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	BUY	8¢	$117	40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	21¢	$107	6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	33¢	$51	18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	33¢	$255	18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$150	19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$150	20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$152	34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$293	34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$149	34d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.75 · official $89.75 (match) · 12 history records