Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x9901…e9b4 sports 159 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,217 (-11%) realized −$3,216 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate63%99W / 58L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$292est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$414
7 days−$414
14 days−$414
30 days−$377
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,511
other 2% +$10
crypto 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +19.2% +7.9% 67% 50% -26.3%
≤30d 21 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 48% -20.6%
≤90d 157 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 47% -20.7%
all 157 -5.0% -14.0% 63% 47% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -20.7%
10% -22.3% 31% -28.2%
15% -29.8% 20% -35.2%
20% -36.7% 13% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$165 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3,216
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses99 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$292
Open positions2
Markets (closed)157 / 159
History coverage81d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs 100 Thieves 87¢ 82¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 58¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $40 +$19 +48%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $37 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $90 −$53 -59%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $80 +$10 +12%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $75 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $57 +$18 +30%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $552 −$335 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$17 +33%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $586 −$212 -36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $198 +$389 +197%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $396 −$392 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $77 +$118 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $48 −$47 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova May 28 $88 −$86 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $299 +$86 +29%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elsa Jacquemot May 28 $99 −$96 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Madison Keys May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Claire Liu May 28 $21 +$132 +642%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Mayar Sherif May 28 $31 −$30 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osorio May 28 $99 +$58 +58%
Roland Garros WTA: Ann Li vs Diane Parry May 28 $101 +$72 +71%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alex Molcan vs Felix Gill May 20 $12 −$9 -77%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Linda Fruhvirtova vs Jessika Ponchet May 20 $9 +$3 +29%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Yelyzaveta Kotliar May 20 $8 +$1 +12%
Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud May 20 $6 +$2 +32%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Karolina Pl May 20 $5 +$1 +31%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Michael Zheng vs Stefano Travaglia May 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner May 20 $7 −$6 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 20 $8 +$3 +30%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $7 +$1 +13%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 20 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl May 19 $5 $0 +9%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $39 −$30 -77%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Leylah Fernandez May 19 $32 +$3 +9%
Hamburg European Open: Justin Engel vs Ugo Humbert May 19 $25 +$7 +27%
Geneva Open: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Jaume Munar May 19 $22 +$3 +12%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to Score May 17 $70 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $56 +$15 +26%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Vexa (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage May 17 $52 +$3 +5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $45 +$7 +16%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Ethan Quinn May 17 $43 +$3 +6%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Terence Atmane: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea May 09 $5 −$4 -81%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marco Trungelliti vs Zachary Svajda May 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jenson Brooksby vs Sebastian Baez May 06 $43 +$3 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Fabian Marozsan vs Vit Kopriva May 06 $36 +$7 +20%
Istanbul: Storm Hunter vs Guiomar Maristany May 06 $27 +$9 +32%
Jiujiang: Xinxin Yao vs Haruka Kaji May 06 $22 +$5 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY 100 Thieves 87¢ $12 7m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 12¢ $12 16m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $59 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks SELL Emiliana Arango 100¢ $59 52m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 67¢ $40 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche SELL Luca Van Assche 100¢ $40 1h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 93¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 19¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 44¢ $90 1h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala SELL Linda Noskova 100¢ $90 2h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala BUY Linda Noskova 88¢ $80 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert SELL Tommy Paul 100¢ $80 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 94¢ $75 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $75 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 76¢ $57 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 22¢ $58 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 59¢ $160 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $159 7h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 48¢ $370 9h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 54¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 35¢ $374 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $586 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $587 22h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 68¢ $396 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $198 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $195 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 39¢ $77 25h
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 46¢ $48 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.21 · official $11.62 (match) · 326 history records