Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
99 0x9901…6adb sports 526 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$288 (-1%) realized −$288 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%209W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$343est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days+$54
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$990
other 18% +$515
world 0% +$41
crypto 0% −$11
tech 0% +$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 12 +11.5% +0.9% 50% 50% -5.2%
≤90d 143 +8.2% -2.1% 42% 41% -13.3%
all 522 +4.0% -5.9% 40% 39% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 39% -11.0%
10% -14.9% 39% -19.5%
15% -23.1% 38% -27.3%
20% -30.7% 37% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$72 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$288
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses209 / 313
Est. fees paid−$343
Open positions0
Markets (closed)522 / 526
History coverage352d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 522 Trades
no open positions (249 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $901 −$25 -3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $51 +$29 +58%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $36 +$43 +121%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $29 −$19 -65%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 +$25 +105%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 +$14 +134%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $16 +$24 +148%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. M Apr 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 09 $121 −$118 -97%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $290 +$28 +10%
Will Arda Güler record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions Apr 07 $34 −$25 -75%
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Apr 06 $67 −$66 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $715 −$117 -16%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 06 $119 −$116 -98%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-04-05? Apr 06 $50 +$69 +139%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 06 $222 −$216 -97%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $120 −$20 -17%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $200 −$196 -98%
Spread: CD Guadalajara (-1.5) Apr 06 $189 −$18 -10%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 06 $100 +$101 +101%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 06 $200 −$195 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 05 $111 −$109 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 05 $127 −$124 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 05 $300 +$328 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $100 −$98 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Apr 05 $100 −$98 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 05 $380 −$375 -99%
Will CF América win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels Apr 05 $190 −$186 -98%
Spread: CF América (-1.5) Apr 05 $108 −$108 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Apr 05 $333 +$865 +260%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Apr 05 $88 +$12 +14%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals Apr 05 $412 +$115 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 05 $203 −$199 -98%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $229 +$271 +118%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 04 $360 −$355 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $217 −$214 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $244 −$124 -51%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 04 $83 −$81 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers Apr 04 $304 +$192 +63%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $356 −$352 -99%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $399 −$394 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Texas Rangers Apr 04 $289 −$285 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Apr 04 $160 +$143 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 44¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $47 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 18¢ $29 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $80 2h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 26¢ $28 5h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $51 5h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY 45¢ $36 20h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 30h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $24 30h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $9 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $10 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 32h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco (-2.5) AND Will Mexico win o BUY $9 32h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $11 32h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $40 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 32h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 33h
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 38¢ $19 66d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. M BUY No Run 57¢ $3 77d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes $3 77d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes $283 80d
Will Arda Güler record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions SELL Yes $9 80d
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $67 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $24.27 · 1079 history records