Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
99 0x9904…5ac8 crypto 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$818 (+5%) realized +$819 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$479now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$498
14 days+$481
30 days+$481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$193
finance 28% +$765
crypto 18% −$1,337
other 15% +$62
world 7% +$1,349
tech 2% −$209
economics 1% +$390
sports 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +26.6% +14.6% 58% 42% +16.2%
≤30d 19 +0.8% -8.8% 47% 32% +1.2%
≤90d 27 +21.0% +9.5% 52% 33% +3.6%
all 67 +8.1% -2.2% 37% 28% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 28% -5.8%
10% -11.6% 24% -14.8%
15% -20.1% 19% -23.0%
20% -28.0% 18% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$88 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$479
Realized+$819
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage176d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $586 +$70 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$79 +16%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $258 +$338 +131%
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? Jun 16 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$5 -2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 +$43 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $1,974 +$37 +2%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority? Apr 12 $150 −$145 -96%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $4,330 +$9 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? Apr 08 $235 +$1,045 +445%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 06 $1,253 +$46 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 02 $309 +$48 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 30? Mar 30 $6 +$23 +388%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 21 $1,000 +$315 +32%
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference? Mar 19 $198 +$390 +197%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 15 $138 +$60 +44%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 23 $252 −$252 -100%
Will Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 22 $257 −$257 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 26? Jan 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 9? Jan 08 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 9? Jan 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 8? Jan 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 8? Jan 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 7? Jan 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $150 and $160 on January 7? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 5? Jan 06 $501 −$501 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 6? Jan 06 $584 +$897 +154%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on January 5? Jan 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 5? Jan 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $100 +$68 +68%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March Jan 04 $500 −$23 -5%
Will Donald Trump say "tariff" during his Mar-a-Lago press conference Jan 04 $250 +$206 +82%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 03 $62 +$21 +34%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 03 $20 +$493 +2465%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 2? Jan 02 $100 +$137 +137%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $402 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $586 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $581 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 86¢ $502 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 38h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $10 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $41 44h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 4d
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 68¢ $55 4d
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 42¢ $54 5d
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 61¢ $49 5d
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $16 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 22¢ $49 5d
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 5d
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $18 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 80¢ $196 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 43¢ $88 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $479.49 · official $479.49 (match) · 138 history records