Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
99 0x9905…3b6e crypto 124 markets active 3d ago coverage 187d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%85W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$10
sports 3% +$3
finance 3% +$5
world 1% −$1
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.6% -30.9% 50% 50% -31.2%
≤30d 71 +3.7% -6.2% 63% 63% -6.2%
≤90d 122 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 57% -13.5%
all 124 +0.3% -9.2% 69% 56% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 56% -11.0%
10% -17.9% 48% -19.5%
15% -25.9% 36% -27.3%
20% -33.1% 23% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

187d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses85 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage187d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 257 history records