Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
99 0x9905…add3 sports 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,005 (+20%) realized +$15,242 · open −$237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%68W / 61L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$549per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1,080est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$4,015now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days−$562
14 days−$2,451
30 days+$11,717
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$13,946
other 8% +$1,021
world 5% +$1,190
crypto 1% −$841
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +20.3% +8.9% 45% 40% -15.4%
≤30d 74 +17.4% +6.2% 51% 47% +12.9%
≤90d 129 +11.4% +0.8% 53% 50% +10.0%
all 129 +11.4% +0.8% 53% 50% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 50% +10.0%
10% -8.8% 48% -0.5%
15% -17.7% 46% -10.1%
20% -25.7% 42% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$608) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$424 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4,015
Realized+$15,242
Unrealized−$237
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses68 / 61
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,080
Open positions11
Markets (closed)129 / 140
History coverage66d
Avg bet$549
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1,000 $1,117 +$117 (+12%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $800 $808 +$8 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $600 $404 −$196 (-33%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $500 $382 −$118 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $300 $259 −$41 (-14%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $200 $243 +$43 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $211 −$89 (-30%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $52 $171 +$119 (+229%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $200 $145 −$55 (-28%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $305 +$448 +147%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $304 −$276 -91%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $306 +$505 +165%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $304 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $506 +$301 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $405 −$400 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $204 +$335 +164%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $599 −$464 -77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $304 +$222 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran Jun 17 $487 +$1,047 +215%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $309 −$18 -6%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $507 −$45 -9%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$82 -80%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$1,121 +365%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,015 −$824 -81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $405 +$17 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $813 −$808 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,873 +$541 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $303 −$300 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $508 +$513 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $508 −$500 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $711 +$56 +8%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $507 +$454 +90%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $509 −$456 -90%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $506 −$500 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $508 +$605 +119%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $203 +$175 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $810 −$800 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,359 −$1,339 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 08 $506 −$231 -46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $279 −$275 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $810 +$569 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $507 +$454 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $405 +$251 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $605 +$422 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $507 +$473 +93%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $607 +$410 +68%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 05 $408 −$400 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $304 −$300 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $101 +$42 +42%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $508 +$569 +112%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $1,013 +$783 +77%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $811 +$705 +87%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 02 $303 −$300 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 5¢ $28 35m
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $304 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 40¢ $305 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $303 45h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $306 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $405 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $539 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 14¢ $135 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $506 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $304 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $304 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $295 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $291 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran BUY 31¢ $487 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $462 5d
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $239 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 63¢ $101 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $102 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,115 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $191 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $205 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $422 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets SELL Atlanta Braves 0¢ $5 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $405 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,015 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $813 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,015.16 · official $4,015.34 (match) · 335 history records