Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990b…855b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-7%) realized +$173 · open −$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$286
other 39% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.0% -21.2% 38% 25% -22.3%
≤30d 8 -13.0% -21.2% 38% 25% -22.3%
≤90d 8 -13.0% -21.2% 38% 25% -22.3%
all 8 -13.0% -21.2% 38% 25% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 25% -22.3%
10% -28.8% 12% -29.7%
15% -35.7% 0% -36.5%
20% -42.0% 0% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $206 $1 −$205 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $83 −$81 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $27 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -21%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -19%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $126 +$41 +33%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $1.47 (match) · 18 history records