Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
99 0x990b…28fe crypto 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate59%108W / 76L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$14
other 21% $0
politics 15% −$3
sports 10% +$21
world 4% +$6
tech 2% $0
culture 2% −$4
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +18.5% +7.2% 100% 14% -8.4%
≤90d 92 -1.1% -10.5% 71% 7% -9.6%
all 184 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 8% -9.5%
10% -21.7% 6% -18.1%
15% -29.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -36.2% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses108 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage163d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? Jun 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $95 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $3 +$4 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 30 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $103 $0 +0%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $4 −$4 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 23 $97 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 20? May 23 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 18 $108 +$1 +0%
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $107 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of May 11 above $245? May 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? May 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 14 $107 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $3 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 12? May 12 $7 −$7 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 4-10? May 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $670 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 08 $116 $0 +0%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 07 $110 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $324 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexandre Muller vs Botic van de Zandschu May 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 5? May 06 $119 +$2 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4? May 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 3? May 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 3? May 04 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 2? May 03 $118 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.50 Week of April May 02 $118 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $118 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $118 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 26? Apr 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $118 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of th BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $83 26d
Will Cătălin Drulă be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $95 26d
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $88 29d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $103 30d
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Tundra Esports 67¢ $4 30d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 33d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY T1 86¢ $6 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $104 34d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $97 34d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif BUY Misa Esports 30¢ $2 34d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $97 34d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 38d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $97 38d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $97 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 40d
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 40d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of May 11 above $245? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 42d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $106 43d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $95 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.03 · official $103.03 (match) · 370 history records