Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

99
0x990e…cecf
crypto · 1265 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,604 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,859 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$50
Realized−$1,859
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses635 / 629
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1264 / 1265
History coverage84d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 1 History 1264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$240
14 days−$11
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Diego Lopes 59¢ 58¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Cleveland Guardians 54¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres San Diego Padres 50¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +61%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $71 +$52 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $102 +$81 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $101 +$82 +81%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $142 +$108 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $142 −$140 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $142 −$140 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $101 +$91 +90%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $102 +$111 +109%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $102 +$131 +129%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $101 +$58 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $102 +$61 +60%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 05 $73 −$72 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $11 +$15 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $13 −$13 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$11 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $71 +$84 +119%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $71 +$50 +70%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $10 +$3 +28%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 05 $3 +$4 +120%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$7 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $14 +$15 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 04 $15 +$6 +41%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $10 $0 -3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $15 +$7 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 03 $15 +$10 +67%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$58
weather 26% −$1,159
sports 22% −$438
crypto 18% −$276
politics 1% −$41
world 1% −$4
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $51 13m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 77¢ $50 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 61¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 7h
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 86¢ $178 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 86¢ $4 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 59¢ $101 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $183 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $71 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $142 7d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $142 7d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 56¢ $142 7d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 7d
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 7d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 47¢ $102 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $102 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.5% +11.8% 77% 77% +27.3%
≤30d 233 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 54% -8.1%
≤90d 1264 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 36% -14.3%
all 1264 -12.8% -21.1% 50% 36% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 36% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 29% -22.5%
15% -35.6% 24% -30.0%
20% -41.9% 17% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.58 · official $47.46 · 3500 history records